aidsВИЧ-инфекция и иммуносупрессииHIV Infection and Immunosuppressive Disorders2077-9828Baltic Medical Education Center10.22328/2077-9828-2017-9-2-58-67aids-260Research ArticleМОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ЭПИДЕМИИМОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ЭПИДЕМИИМАТЕМАТИЧЕСКОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ЭПИДЕМИЧЕСКОГО И БИОЛОГИЧЕСКИХ ПРОЦЕССОВ ВИЧ-ИНФЕКЦИИMATHEMATICAL MODELING OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL AND BIOLOGICAL HIV INFECTION PROCESSESНешумаевД. А.NeshumaevD. A.

Нешумаев Дмитрий Александрович — кандидат медицинских наук, зав. лабораторией иммунологических и гематологических исследований КГАУЗ «Краевой центр СПИД».

660028, Красноярск, ул. Ладо Кецховели, 71–36

neshumaev@gmail.comСухаревЕ. Н.SucharevE. N.

Сухарев Евгений Николаевич — кандидат технических наук, доцент кафедры электронной техники и телекоммуникаций Института информатики и телекоммуникаций ФГБОУ ВО «Сибирский государственный аэрокосмический университет имени академика М.Ф.Решетнёва».

660037, Красноярск, пр. имени Газеты «Красноярский рабочий», 31, а/я 1075.

solo113@mail.ruСтасенкоВ. Л.StasenkoV. L.

Стасенко Владимир Леонидович — доктор медицинских наук, профессор, зав. кафедрой эпидемиологии ФГБОУ ВО «Омский государственный медицинский университет».

644099, Омск, ул. Ленина, 12. 

vlstasenko@yandex.ruКГАУЗ «Красноярский краевой центр профилактики и борьбы со СПИД».РоссияKrasnoyarsk Regional Aids CenterRussian FederationФГБОУ ВО «Сибирский государственный аэрокосмический университет имени академика М.Ф. Решетнёва».РоссияReshetnev Siberian State Aerospace UniversityRussian FederationФГБОУ ВО «Омский государственный медицинский университет»РоссияOmsk State Medical UniversityRussian Federation201707072017925867Copyright © Нешумаев Д.А., Сухарев Е.Н., Стасенко В.Л., 20172017Нешумаев Д.А., Сухарев Е.Н., Стасенко В.Л.Neshumaev D.A., Sucharev E.N., Stasenko V.L.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://hiv.bmoc-spb.ru/jour/article/view/260

В данной работе проведен анализ публикаций международных баз данных HighWire, PubMed, Google Scholar в период с 1981 по 2016 год, предложена оригинальная классификация моделей. Все основные математические модели, разработанные для вируса иммунодефицита человека категоризированы на 2 уровня: организменный и популяционный. Организменный уровень делится на модели взаимодействия вируса и человека (изучение репликации вируса иммунодефицита человека, кинетика вирусной популяции в процессе развития заболевания, молекулярные механизмы взаимодействия с иммунными клетками) и модели ингибирующего действия антиретровирусных препаратов (имитационные модели различных терапевтических схем, выработка мутаций резистентности, вирус иммунодефицита человека в клеточных резервуарах, лечение как профилактическое мероприятие). Популяционный уровень можно разделить на модели распространения вируса иммунодефицита человека среди населения (циркуляция различных генотипов вируса, анализ структуры человеческой популяции по возрасту, полу и контингентам риска, тенденции развития в разных географических территориях, изучение факторов, способствующих распространению вирусной инфекции) и управленческие модели, позволяющие наиболее эффективно использовать ресурсы здравоохранения для противодействия эпидемии (анализ профилактической работы, оценка экономических издержек скрининговых, лечебных мероприятий, прогнозирование социально-экономических последствий). Рассмотрены наиболее значимые достижения каждой из представленных групп, выделены не решенные на сегодняшний день проблемы.

In this paper analyzed the publications of international databases HighWire, PubMed, Google Scholar in the period 1981–2016 years. Proposed an original classification models. All the basic mathematical models developed for the human immunodeficiency virus are categorized into 2 levels: organism and population. The organism level is divided into models of virus and human interaction (HIV replication, study of the kinetics of viral population in the development of the disease, the molecular mechanisms of inte- raction with immune cells) and models of the inhibitory effect of anti-retroviral drugs (simulations of different therapeutic schemes, the development of resistance mutations HIV in cell reservoirs, treatment as a preventive measure). The population level can be divided into models of spread of HIV in a population (the circulation of different genotypes of HIV, the analysis of human population structure by age, sex and risk of contingent and trends in different geographical areas, the study of factors contributing to the spread of HIV infection) and management models, making the most effective use of health care system resources for the counteract the epidemic (preventive work analysis, evaluation of the economic costs of screening, therapeutic activities, forecasting the socio-eco- nomic impact). The authors consider the most significant achievements of each of these groups, and highlight unresolved problems

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.