Mathematical prognosis of the outcome of the disease of a patient with tuberculosis with HIV infection upon admission to the hospital of the Federal Penitentiary Service

Abstract

Objective. To identify a mathematical pattern for the subsequent calculation of the prognosis of the outcome of a tuberculosis patient with HIV infection upon admission to the hospital of the Federal Penitentiary Service.

Materials and methods. The object of the study was 363 patients with tuberculosis and HIV infection who were admitted for treatment at the hospital of the Federal Penitentiary Service. Discriminant analysis was used to evaluate the features most associated with the discrimination of observations, a priori divided into groups, and reclassify them. As a result, new discriminant axes were obtained, in the space of which the compared groups have the maximum difference.

Results and discussion. Formulas were obtained for predicting the outcome of a tuberculosis patient with HIV infection upon admission to a medical institution of the Federal Penitentiary Service: favorable outcome =–91.2138+4.2971×(body mass index)+0.4426×(«experience» of smoking, years)+0.5143×(hemoglobin level, g/l)+0.6158×(stab neutrophils, %)+ 0.4913×(leukocyte T-cell index);unfavorable outcome =–81.8053+3.9467×(body mass index)+0.4071×(«experience» of smoking, years)+0.4724×(hemoglobin level, g/l)+0.6861×(stab neutrophils, %)+0.6630×(leukocyte T-cell index); progression or chronicity =–91.9349+4.2025×(body mass index)+0.5119×(smoking experience, years)+0.5103×(hemoglobin level, g/l)+0.5901×(stab neutrophils, %)+0.5×(leukocyte T-cell index).

Conclusion. Simple formulas have been obtained that can be successfully used to calculate the prognosis of the course of the disease upon admission to a hospital in a patient with tuberculosis with concomitant HIV infection.