Modeling the spread of HIV infection in three main risk groups in Moscow

The aim. Modeling the spread of HIV infection in three main risk groups for predicting the number of people living with HIV at various stages of HIV infection and assessing the contribution of the introduction of mass antiretroviral therapy. Materials and methods. The main source of data for the study was the statistical observation form N61 «Information on HIV infection», Federal Register of persons infected with the human Immunodeficiency virus, using Federal State Statistics Service data on the dynamics of the Moscow population. The epidemiological model was developed on the basis of the Russian theory of epidemic modeling «Epiddynamics» by O. V. Baroyan — L. A. Rvachev. Results and discussion. Computational experiments have shown that if current trends in the spread of HIV and the level of antiretroviral therapy coverage continue, the total number of people living with HIV, registered and living in Moscow, will gradually decrease and may reach approximately 35.6 thousand people by the end of 2030. According to modeling data, the introduction of mass antiretroviral therapy has so far prevented more than 40,000 cases of HIV infection and about 8,000 deaths from the effects of HIV infection among residents of Moscow. Conclusion. An adequate epidemiological model developed based on the ideas of the theory of «Epiddynamics» is an effective tool for conducting predictive studies of the dynamics of the epidemic process of HIV infection, as well as for assessing the contribution of various scenarios in terms of antiretroviral therapy coverage.

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